Possibly Over a Century or Only a Few Decades

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has been found guilty of all seven criminal charges brought against him by a jury of twelve. The question of how long he will remain in prison will now be deliberated by Judge Lewis Kaplan over the next few months. Judge Kaplan is a no-nonsense veteran of the Southern District of New York and has presided over several high-profile cases. He is known for his straightforward approach and intolerance for pageantry in his courtroom. Bankman-Fried’s behavior during his four days on the stand was met with impatience from Judge Kaplan, who quickly reprimanded him for convoluted and contradictory answers. Bankman-Fried’s evasion of questions and combative attitude toward the Assistant U.S. attorney did not make a favorable impression on the jury or the judge. The sentencing date has been set for March 28 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Bankman-Fried was convicted of wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, securities fraud, commodities fraud, and money laundering. The speed with which the jury reached a unanimous verdict suggests their strong conviction and lack of doubt about the charges. Yesha Yadav, a law professor and Associate Dean at Vanderbilt University, believes this overwhelming consensus should lead the judge to impose a more severe sentence. The statutory maximum sentence is around 115 years, but the actual sentence will be determined based on sentencing guidelines and the severity of the crimes committed.

Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor, believes Bankman-Fried could spend the next 20 to 25 years in prison due to the scale of his fraud and his defiant behavior on the stand. Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research LLC, who testified during the trial, left a negative impression of Bankman-Fried with the jury. Judge Kaplan, known for having more sympathy for victims than for defendants, is likely to consider all circumstances surrounding the case when determining the sentence. Sentencing guidelines suggest a lengthy prison term, potentially close to the 110 years recommended.

However, some factors may work in Bankman-Fried’s favor. His age and the non-violent nature of his crimes may be considered by the judge. Former federal prosecutor Paul Tuchmann compared Bankman-Fried’s case to that of Bernie Madoff, who was sentenced to 150 years in prison. Tuchmann believes the staggering amount of losses suffered by small investors in Bankman-Fried’s case may lead to a significant sentence. Nevertheless, Bankman-Fried still has an opportunity to make positive contributions in his lifetime.

There is also the possibility of a second case with separate charges against Bankman-Fried in March 2024. The Department of Justice has until February 1 to decide whether to proceed. If found guilty in this second case, Bankman-Fried could face an even longer sentence. Sentencing in his current case is scheduled to take place in March 2024, close to the start of the second trial. The outcome of this second trial may further impact Bankman-Fried’s sentence.