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Last month, for the first time in recorded history,
Among the long and lamentable list of records, the report notes that the global mean temperatures from February 2023 to January 2024 have averaged about 1.52°C above the pre-industrial average. This is the highest this mercury has consistently soared in recorded history.
Breaking the threshold!
If you’ve somehow managed to keep yourself from the onslaught of climate news coverage in recent times, here’s a refresher on our temperature “targets”. The
So far, all recent studies indicate that we are, quite unfortunately, on track to blaze past this point in this decade itself. While the world collectively breached 1.5°C for over half of the days in 2023, there was some consolation in knowing that this threshold-crossing trend has to be sustained for a few successive years before any mighty conclusions can be drawn. However, C3S’s latest report just puts into perspective how little breathing room we actually have left.
The record-breaking warming is attributed to a combination of factors, including the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon and, of course, rising greenhouse gas emissions. While the El Niño is expected to weaken, scientists warn that we’re “very, very close to a longer-term breach” of the 1.5°C threshold. The latest UN considerations reckon that we will begin to consistently cross 1.5°C sometime in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
The month of records
Further, January 2024 was a distinct outlier among the warmest of months in recorded history! It shattered several other records too, by becoming the eighth month in a row that was the warmest on record for the respective month of the year with a massive 1.66°C hotter compared to the pre-industrial average. January 2024 dethroned January 2020 by a margin of 0.12°C for the title of warmest ever January.
Beyond land, the above-average heat had a significant impact on the glaciers littering our cold seas as well. While Arctic and Greenland sea ice extents remained slightly high in January, conditions were less than dainty for
Devastating projections
The stark reality is that even rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to prevent further warming and its devastating impacts. However, in practice or on paper, countries aren’t doing nearly enough. According to the UN’s latest Emission Gap report, current pledges will warm the world by 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. If we want to avoid 1.5°C, we need to cut emission levels by a massive 66% of what was observed last year.
This warming carries significant consequences. Experts warn of potential extinctions, crop failures, and irreversible tipping points in the climate system, like the loss of coral reefs and accelerated sea level rise. The
The most vulnerable populations are already suffering at the hands of extreme weather variables. The monsoon, India’s lifeblood, is becoming increasingly erratic due to climate change. In 2023, heavy monsoon rains caused devastating floods in Assam, displacing millions and leaving a trail of destruction. Conversely, parts of Maharashtra faced severe droughts, impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. This unpredictability threatens food security for millions who rely on rain-fed agriculture.
Even heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating consequences. And similar stories unfold across vulnerable regions like island nations facing rising sea levels and African countries grappling with intensified droughts and floods. These regions often lack the infrastructure, resources, and technology to adapt to these changes, making them even more susceptible.
Read a summary of the report here.
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