Warmer Winter Forecast for Northern US Due to El Niño, while Southern US Expects Above-Average Rainfall
In an exciting turn of events, the northern United States is expected to experience warmer than average temperatures this winter, thanks to the arrival of El Niño. Alternatively, the southern US can anticipate higher levels of precipitation through February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
El Niño, a phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years when ocean temperatures warm up in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has a global impact on weather patterns, as stated by the National Weather Service.
The NOAA predicts that the areas with the highest likelihood of warmer temperatures from December through February include Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England. Additionally, the upper Midwest, California, and parts of the South are also expected to experience above-average temperatures.
To illustrate this forecast, the NOAA has provided a seasonal temperature outlook for the 2023-2024 winter, showing the expected temperature patterns across the country.
Conversely, the southern US is predicted to receive above-average levels of precipitation during the winter months. The regions with the highest odds of increased rainfall include Florida, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. The West, Southern Plains, and Southeastern states can also expect a more substantial amount of rainfall during this season.
Accompanying this forecast is the NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook for the 2023-2024 winter, displaying the projected rainfall patterns across the US.
Additionally, El Niño’s arrival is likely to impact drought conditions in various parts of the country. Ongoing droughts in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and portions of the Southwest are expected to persist from October through January. However, drought conditions in some areas of the South and lower Midwest may potentially improve or even vanish entirely, as predicted by the NOAA.
The NOAA has provided a seasonal drought outlook for October 2023 through January 2024, demonstrating the expected drought conditions across the US.
Overall, this winter’s El Niño, the first in four years, holds a 30% chance of reaching the strength of previous powerful El Niño events, such as those experienced in the winter of 1997-98 and 2015-16, according to the NOAA.
With these exciting weather predictions, the upcoming winter in the United States is expected to deviate from the norm across different regions. As the influence of El Niño unfolds, people living in the northern US can prepare for warmer conditions, while those in the southern US should anticipate increased precipitation levels.
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